The Russian Grab | Peter Zeihan

Peter Zeihan had an interesting take on this, that the Russians moved on Ukraine because their demographic decline means that if they don't invade now, they will forever lose the ability to wage war and hence defend their homeland. The Soviet-era population is rapidly aging out of military service age, and the post-Soviet generation is tiny, and so they will not be able to field a meaningful army if they wait. Basically Ukraine is a last-ditch attempt to save the Russian state. link Interestingly, he predicted the Ukraine war 5 years before it happened: ▶ this video

> It isn't the Stratfor origin, or the blazenly pro-American optimism per se that concern me Are you sure about that? Because all you've written is that Zeihan, who focuses on practical and immediate concerns of demographics, energy and agricultural markets - is obfuscating realities and monopolizing ears. Eh? As opposed to what or whom? Here is a three minute snippet from one of his talks from five years ago : ▶ this video What brilliant insights are being crowded out? What specifically is he wrong about?

Reiterating from memory of his lectures on YouTube: - The Russians consider some nine-odd geographic boundaries of the former union to be crucial to defense (e.g. between mountains and deserts, certain ports). Without fortifying there, a lot of the Rus land area is open and hard to defend. Interestingly, Ukraine contains only one in Crimea (which they already had) but is on the way to ones in Romania, Poland, etc. - With the fall of the union, there was not only a baby bust but also the collapse of technical training programs. The "demographic cliff" means that not only will the army half in size but, e.g. the rail lines and electric are also in danger. - While Ukrainian resolve and EU unity were a surprise to even the US, he also sees a leadership failing not unlike the Chinese one - authoritarian that drives out opposition too harshly also drives out the people in the room that push back on bad ideas. FSB had intelligence that overwhelmingly, UA would accept occupation? An older summary: ▶ this video

Here’s one for you: He predicted the invasion of Ukraine back in this video from 2017 (actually earlier, but this was the easiest source for me to cite): ▶ this video The whole video is pretty short, but he mentions Ukraine about 2 1/2 minutes in.