Exponential growth and epidemics

Just watched the 3brown1blue video today, which talks about exponential growth and fixes it to the latest actual COVID-19 numbers. Really helped it all click. ▶ this video Edit: separate HN discussion: link

To be exact, it's a "logistic curve", which initially is exponential. From this 3Blue1Brown excellent video: ▶ this video

And those who don't understand, or need a refresher on, exponential growth should watch this great video by 3Blue1Brown. Exponential growth and epidemics: ▶ this video

I live in Bergen County. There is a lack of panic - although I'm on the north side, opposite of the most infected parts. I went grocery shopping earlier today, there were a few people with masks but no one was really trying to keep a distance from others. Plenty of people there, perhaps a few less than usual. At times there are so many people that they have to restrict entry into the store and create a line outside (possibly to help with social distancing, but there are still too many people in the store for that to matter). It's the opposite of social distancing. The disaster in NYC, and the counties immediately north/east of Bergen (Westchester, Rockland) is going to spill over. We're not going to be able to handle it and we don't have the clout of NY to push for more resources. In a recent video, 3Blue1Brown wrote "The only thing to fear is a lack of fear itself." This is what worries me. My parents are at risk as long-time smokers and if Valley runs out of ventilators and PPE, our major/usual option is out. (excellent video by the way) ▶ this video

regardless of what you hear, china takes outbreaks very seriously and responds aggressively. the general population in china also takes it very seriously. normal behavior response in china looks like over reaction in the us. please watch this video by 3blue1brown ▶ this video china is past its inflection point and we have yet to determine where our inflection point will be. everyone should be changing your behavior now. the fact that sars-cov didn’t get as far in 2002 as sars-cov-2 virus is currently going should be concerning. the us could ignore prior outbreaks because china is aggressive to stop it.

But months ago they really couldn’t have known. We still don’t know how many will be infected. All we can do is take precautionary measures. The WHO messaging should have been stronger and earlier, but it isn’t their fault for not labeling a pandemic months ago. Granted, there was enough data and research done to squarely label this as a pandemic, and that’s really where I assign blame on them. Here is a neat video that helps put things in perspective for most any viewer. ▶ this video

Maybe they should include this 3Blue1Brown video to explain what 'exponential' means in this context: ▶ this video

This is the time to resort to drastic measures to prevent drastic consequences. Have you seen this from 3Blue1Brown: ▶ this video "Exponential growth and epidemics" ?

3blue1brown did a good video explaining the logistic shape of pandemic curves: ▶ this video My key takeaway was that once you see the inflection point, you know that you’ll have roughly 2x the number infections by the time it’s done.

3 blue one brown had a great video on exponential growth that detailed how a 10% difference in the numbers is the difference between being halfway there and having orders of magnitude to go. As I'm sure you're aware, the point of the numbers isn't to change the reality of the situation, it's to understand what that reality is. And the people that care are epidemiologists and leaders with decades of experience fighting pandemic after pandemic. You know, people that know what they're talking about? Might be worth trying to spend time actually learning how the people that are spending day and night trying to save your life and the lives of your loved ones do their work before dismissing them as useless. ▶ this video

100k is a rough estimate. It might be higher, but will most likely be lower. The data will need to be pruned and carefully looked at. There are incentives for people to misclassify deaths at COVID19[0]. It will likely not get much higher than 100k as exponential growth doesn't continue indefinitely[1]. It's practically gone in Italy right now. 600k die every year from hearth disease. 700k died globally from mosquito transmitted illness[2]. There are tons of secondary effects. People in America have died of Malaria. Many have committed suicide (Including my best friend's flatmate). Many were told not to come to hospitals. Many hearth attacks were wrongly attributed to COVID if a patient tested positive for it. We've seen massive amounts of people at beaches in Florida, Texas and other places, as well as these protests and riots, and there are no massive spikes in fatalities 2~4 weeks after those events. The WHO said asymptomatic spread was rare, then waked it back (probably because of political pressure from Dr Fauchi), even though it was known asymptomatic spread was probably not a major transmission in February[3]! This entire thing has been one massive media manipulation, and in less than two days, the entire thing flipped from one global narrative to another, like a switch! [0]: link [1]: ▶ this video [2]: link [3]: link

"there are plenty of other data" -- would you be able to educate with some sources? I've been digging in deep and trying to keep an impartial opinion, but have not seen solid evidence that this is true -- or, as you say "there is a study for every truth", I've seen no study to indicate "it is hardly dangerous" (which also feels subjective in those words) > Also, so many deaths are being counted as covid when the patient already had a severe condition Yes... as many scientists talk about, COVID-19 has a much more severe effect in people with underlying conditions. Here is where Dr. Fauci, or the CDC as a whole talks specifically about underlying issues: link "the numbers are way inflated" is using generalized language for something that might be true, but even if you take a _very_ conservative view and consider 50% of the reports are false (and I've seen nowhere claiming it's anywhere near that high), the 50% of remaining deaths and complications are significantly high enough that it's far worse than the flu, and far worse if lockdown wasn't in play where some basic math indicates it would be 10x worse: ▶ this video