Joe Rogan Experience #1439 - Michael Osterholm

Dr. Michael Osterholm was on Joe Rogan's podcast explaining in detail how this virus spreads [1] - Washing hands and not touching face is inconclusive but it makes sense to keep up the hygiene. That's not the primary means of how this virus spreads. - Virus primarily spreads via airborne means, simply by breathing (not even coughing or sneezing) is enough. It stays suspended in air (you can imagine the negligible weight of a 0.1um particle compared to the fluid mechanical forces from circulating air). - N95 masks (contrarily to the popular myth) are the most effective means of stopping the spread. Shortage of masks for hospital workers is an orthogonal issue. I urge everyone of you to watch this interview and to be more informed. [1] ▶ this video

So I encourage people to go watch the Joe Rogan podcast on this [1]. A few snippets: - He describes this as more like a "winter" than a "blizzard" in that this is going to go on for months; - No one really knows what the mortality rate is but it's become clear there are certain risk factors eg the fatality rate among people over 70 in China is about 3x for men than women but men are much more likely to smoke than women in China in this age group. - Keeping schools closed is a mixed bag. For one, kids below 9 or so don't seem to get sick or die. In China only 2% of cases are under age 19. There are other diseases like this (eg Hepatitis-A). If you keep kids home, some people will lose their jobs or simply be unable to work as they take care of those children. Some of those people will be health care professionals. The lack of those will likely kill people; - It's unclear yet what other risk factors (other than age and smoking) there are. Obesity in the developed world is a big cause for concern as this unfolds. A stat quoted is that 45% of people in the US aged 45 and older are obese or severely obese; - It's largely a question of when not if you'll get this; - It's a myth that we'll have a vaccine before ~18 months. You can't rush this. It's like trying to rush a pregnancy. - Italy is a window to how most places will be in ~3 weeks; - We, as a society, have a short attention span. We could've developed a vaccine for coronaviruses after previous outbreaks (SARS/MERS) but there

This was very helpful to me: ▶ this video Michael Osterholm is an internationally recognized expert in infectious disease epidemiology. He is Regents Professor, McKnight Presidential Endowed Chair in Public Health, the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP), Distinguished Teaching Professor in the Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, a professor in the Technological Leadership Institute, College of Science and Engineering, and an adjunct professor in the Medical School, all at the University of Minnesota. Look for his book "Deadliest Enemy: Our War Against Deadly Germs" for more info. link link

> Joe also likes to deflect ... I think there's some truth to what he says here. For some topics he actually just does let people talk. And that's fine. But there are some topics where Joe isn't just "asking questions" but is actively pushing a particular viewpoint. The first and most obvious one is vaccines. Covid has broken this man's brain. If you go back to March 2020, his interview with Michael Osterholm [1] was actually really good. It was one of the first I saw that recognized how serious this actually was. But for whatever reasons, Joe has decided vaccines are bad and he's had a parade of grifters and charlatans on to back up that view (eg Robert Malone). There is absolutely no evidence in the world that will change his mind. The second is all his manosphere [2] content. He really rode the wave of popularity of Jordan Peterson in particular and really gave him a platform with no pushback whatsoever. The recent rise of Andrew Tate is just the latest manifestation of this (fun fact: Tate dated JP's daughter a couple of years ago). The third is transgender people. Trans people broke a lot of people in a way that's reminiscent of 1990s era homophobia. Bill Maher is another example of this. So a big part of Joe's popularity isn't just a "dumb guy asking questions", it's that he pushes very normative and popular opinions. [1]: ▶ this video [2]: link

Michael Osterholm talks a bit on this in March and how hand washing is somewhat pointless - ▶ this video You can talk about hand washing stopping other diseases etc but by ignoring how C19 is about breathing why would you expect people to suddenly believe masks matter. Even pushing outdoor dining and activities, if we are taught it's contact, once again people won't respond.

According to cdc expert, kids up to 19 mostly don't get sick, or if they do, it's not as bad as in adults over 40 ▶ this video

Yes. The Joe Rogan experience episode with Michael Osterholm talked about this. Basically all of this social distancing is about slowing the spread so as to not overwhelm the healthcare system, not stop it. They can calculate how much you impact the speed of spread if you limit gatherings to 1k, 100, 50, 5, etc. From there it's a somewhat subjective risk assessment of what you want to recommend, bearing in mind that destroying the economy results in deaths from downstream effects. ▶ this video

Michael Osterholm of the University of Minnesota said as much on JRE yesterday.[1] Obviously touching your face won't decrease your chances of catching coronavirus (or any other disease), but the reason this strain is wrecking so much havoc is because of how transmissible it is, especially through simple breathing. The implication being, if you get it on your hands, you've almost certainly already breathed it in. [1] ▶ this video

I would love to see you link/source. I have watched ▶ this video with Michael Osterholm as guest. This is not a flat out lie.

No, not even close. Those wet markets are a fucking nightmare. There are truly optimized for pulling new diseases into the human population. Thousands of animals, hundreds of different species, many known to be reservoirs of potential human pathogens, crammed together in close proximity with each other and with humans who eat them. In his interview with Joe Rogan, Michael Osterholm called it "the perfect experiment that no university would let you do": ▶ this video Their discussion of wet markets starts at around 1:01:00.

> these steps are informed, authoritarian, and right-headed I have to say, I think this is a very insensitive thing to say. Being in a position of privilege to likely avoid the consequences of authoritarian tendencies is wonderful, but most people don't enjoy such a position. Authoritarian tactics are per se wrong. > And with all due respect, what relevance does Vitamin D have to do with the price of tea in China? I hope you're not suggesting this thing will magically go away if we just get our vitamin supplementation right. I didn't suggest that, no. But it is one of the interventions that makes sense. And generally, obviously, fresh air and exercise are important for overall health and wellness. Tangentially related: warmth and humidity is likely, according to some researchers, to drastically reduce replication and transmission. [0] [1] So getting out in the sun (with reasonable social distancing) can't hurt, and it might help. (Even more tangentially: some researchers believe that very high heats, such as with sauna therapy, can even further reduce replication, based on this 2004 paper [2]) 0: link 1: link 2: link > Do you have a citation on CIDRAP opposing school closures? I couldn't easily find it. Michael Osterholm himself has spoken extensively on his apprehension about shelter-in-place as a policy to combat coronaviruses, including COVID-19, including during his recent (very informative) interview with Joe Rogan, during which he specifically discussed school clo

There is a very succinct explanation by Michael Osterholm [1][2] where he says that the virus is spread both by droplets & aerosols, and that sharing the same air with another person is the primary vector (that isn't intended to sound as alarmist as it probably does). From what I understand the best prevention is to reduce face-to-face contact with other people where possible, but an N95 mask would definitely help prevent contraction in public spaces. Of course, these measures seem extreme since ~80% of people will barely notice they are infected / have mild symptoms, but it's all about peak-load reduction. [1]: link [2]: ▶ this video